Forecasting Mobile Internet Diffusion Trend Based on Optimized Bass Model

In order to make accurate forecast of mobile Internet diffusion trend. This paper proposes a method which is based on Bass innovation diffusion model. To solve the problem that the parameters of the model are difficult to estimate, a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) whose inertia weight changes dynamically is introduced to search the most precise parameters. The application of the index of population density helps determine the convergence status of population. When the algorithm is trapped into local optimum, the combination of Cauchy mutation and Gaussian mutation is applied on the global best particle. The results of the experiment show that optimized Bass model is suitable for predicting mobile Internet diffusion trend and the proposed algorithm can effectively improve the precision of the optimal solution as compared to existed estimation methods.